Exit polls signal continuity in infrastructure push, but opposition gains could delay $100 billion welfare expansions.
Exit polls from the Bihar assembly elections, released post-Phase II voting on November 11, overwhelmingly favor the ruling coalition with 150-180 seats—securing a third term for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Searches for results hit 2,000 in India, reflecting national stakes in a state contributing 3% to GDP.
Economists at InCred Equities warn of a 5-7% Nifty 50 dip if the margin narrows, citing investor aversion to coalition fragility. Bihar's $300 billion economy, ranked last in social indicators, hinges on federal transfers: A stable government could unlock $20 billion in capex for roads and power by 2027.
Policy continuity promises 8% manufacturing growth, per state forecasts, but opposition narratives on caste quotas threaten 10% of budgetary allocations. Consumer confidence, at 85 index points, ties to job pledges—targeting 2 million roles in textiles and agro-processing.
The election tests India's federalism: Bihar's verdict influences $50 billion in national schemes, with rural spending driving 60% of local GDP. As polls close on November 14, markets brace for volatility, underscoring elections' 2% sway on annual growth.
