Selective buying supported the market on Monday with retail and consumer stocks showing strength. TRENT emerged as the top performer in the Nifty T20 pack.
Top Nifty T20 Gainers:
- TRENT jumped 6.27% to ₹3773.40 on strong volume.
- TITAN gained 2.95%.
- COALINDIA rose 2.08%, followed by AXISBANK (+1.89%) and SHRIRAMFIN (+1.73%).
IT and banking names like WIPRO, INFY, and HDFCBANK also posted modest gains. The buying provided some cushion amid overall market caution.
Nifty is likely to find immediate support near 22,500–22,700 levels with resistance around 23,000–23,100.
After opening weak because crude stayed above $110/barrel and West Asia tensions remained elevated, Indian equities staged a sharp intraday recovery once reports emerged of a draft 45-day ceasefire proposal between Iran and the US, alongside possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. That directly eased fears around oil supply disruption, which is critical for India.
Where markets stood
- Sensex: 73,866 (+546)
- Nifty: 22,884 (+171)
- Recovery picked up sharply post-noon as ceasefire headlines hit the wires.
Why the market turned positive
1) Ceasefire hopes = oil cool-off expectations
The Strait of Hormuz is a key crude transit route. Any signal of reopening reduces the risk premium in oil prices, which is bullish for India’s:
- inflation outlook
- rupee stability
- current account
- OMCs, paints, aviation, logistics
That’s why the market moved from risk-off to risk-on almost instantly.
2) RBI policy optimism
The street is now focused on the RBI monetary policy meeting this week. Even if rates remain unchanged, the market is watching:
- inflation commentary
- liquidity stance
- growth forecast
- any shift in tone due to elevated crude
A neutral-to-dovish commentary could support banks, NBFCs and rate-sensitive sectors.
3) Short covering after weak open
Because markets opened lower, a positive geopolitical headline likely triggered:
- short covering in index futures
- fast buying in banks and largecaps
- rebound in autos and metals
This amplified the upside move.
Key risk still remains
The rally is headline-sensitive. If:
- Iran rejects the proposal
- oil spikes back above $110–112
- RBI sounds hawkish on inflation
then Nifty can again become volatile near the 22,700–22,900 zone. Morning weakness today already reflected how fragile sentiment was before the rebound.
What traders should watch next
Immediate levels:
- Support: 22,750
- Strong support: 22,620
- Resistance: 22,950
- Breakout zone: 23,050
A sustained move above 23,000 can trigger further momentum buying.
