Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation – March 2026 (Provisional)
Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation for March 2026 (provisional) stood at 3.40% year-on-year (y-o-y), reflecting a modest increase from 3.21% in February 2026. Rural inflation was recorded at 3.63%, while urban inflation stood at 3.11%. Food inflation (CFPI) rose to 3.87% (y-o-y), up from 3.47% in the previous month.
"The current headline CPI inflation at 3.40% remains broadly aligned with the RBI’s medium-term price stability objective. The persistence of low prices in the transport group and moderate housing inflation suggests that underlying supply-side pressures are contained. However, volatility in food components warrants continued policy vigilance, as fears of a poor monsoon due to El Niño conditions loom large," said Mr. Rajeev Juneja, President, PHDCCI.
Food and beverage price dynamics (weight: 36.75%) continued to play a significant role in shaping the overall CPI trajectory. Prices of several essential food items recorded a substantial decline, contributing to overall price stability. Notably, onion prices declined by 27.76%, while potato prices fell by 18.98%, and pulses such as arhar/tur remained in negative territory.
These declines helped counterbalance upward pressures from certain vegetables such as tomato (35.99%) and cauliflower (34.11%), which continued to exhibit elevated inflation rates. At the category level, inflation remained contained across most divisions, with transport inflation near zero, he added.
Outlook
"Looking ahead, CPI inflation is expected to remain within a manageable range in the near term, supported by continued moderation in key food items. However, upside risks persist from supply-side shocks in perishables and fluctuations in international commodity prices. The overall trajectory will depend on monsoon outcomes, global input costs, and evolving demand conditions."
